Three Futures
For The

Environment

by Kenneth Cliristilinscn
Norris Professor oi Biology

“There was a door to which 1 round no key:

“There was a veil past whichl could
notsee: , ,

Man has made great strides in analyzing the
past but the future remains mysterious. The
Meadows research team at M.l.T. has re
cently made an attempt to peer into the
iuture with a computer rather than the tra
ditional crystal ball. In their book, “The
Limits to Growth", they use the world model
to analyze the probable iate oi man. The
assumptions involved in this model are so
great that the work has been soundly con—
demned by most ”authorities”; however,
it does iurnish iood ior thought, In addition
many or the critics are growth economists
whose toes were not only tread upon in the
book but mashed thoroughly and their tes-
timony must be treated with the same can»

confidence as that of the American Tobacco

Company on lung cancer.

Essentially the model predicts that ii pres-
ent trends continue there will be rapid de-
pletion of non—renewable resources in the next
6 decades and, as population continues to
increase, food per capita will start to drop
about 2,000 ILD. This combined with increas»
ing pollution will cause a crash in popula-
tion in the middle oithe 21st century, Changes
in technology, or birth control, or pollution
control only postpone the crash for 20730
years. only planned limitation oi economic
growth will alter the final result, While their
projections are interesting and (to me) cone
vincing, they deal with a terribly short time»
150 years. This is an evolutionary milli-
second and I would like to take a slightly
longer view. To give reasonable impartiality
let us take a retrospective view as seen by
a scientist irom Alpha Centauri planetary
system atter a visit oi one year, 5,000 years
from now. We will take three views repre—
senting differing futures.

Report 1)

It is clear that bipedal reasoning mammals
existed on this planet for over a million years,
They approached a modest level ottechno-
logical development about 5,000 years ago
shortly before their extinction. While the
cause of the extinction remains obscure, un-
usually high levels oi mercury and cadmium
in offshore marine deposits make it very
probable that some sort of toxification of the
environment was the cause. Supporting this
hypothesis is the great elaboration oi what
appear to be water purification devices in the
last period of their development. An alter
native cause is suggested by the large an-
aerobic deposits found in both marine and
freshwater sediments of the era. These sug-
gest widespread atmospheric contamination
and low oxygen levels in any case their ex-
tinction was accompanied by the extinction of
much of the extant vertebrate 2nd flowering
plant fauna and flora, Further investigation
will be required to shed more light on this
sudden environmental change.

Report 2)

We have had full cooperation of the “peoples
government” and the storage webs have been
opened to us on the proviso that we grant
no conferences While here, In terms of the
presnet organization ol their society, it ape
pears that the middle of the 8th millenium
(the let century by their calendar) was
Critical. Famine swept the world about earth
year 2,040 at the sametime that technological
pollution reached a peak The death rate
climbed sharply in most areas. Government
was still in the form of national units and
these had already become authoritarian in all
areas. Under the impact ot the new crises
they all turned into absolutist oligarchies.
Wars had characterized the planet for 4,000
years but under the new conditions these
escalated into thermoenuclear Conflicts.
After iour prolonged periods oi war, re
covery, and new war the Asian “Peoples
government” developed a world hegemony
which soon hardened into (i total Control that
has continued ever since. By our standards
these creatures lead a reinu‘rkably
regimented life, Even the simplest action
requires a permit and all planning is cenr
traiized. The standards of living are uni-
iorm and minimal. Every aspect oi
education, entertainment, and permit
granting is oriented towards instilling an
attitude oi cooperation and acceptance oi
governmental control. We are assured by all
authorities that this control is necessary
for survival on the depaupel'ate planet, and
that the people are happy and content.
We are not allowed to speak with anyone
outside the government apparatus without a

“regulator" being present. The people
appear placid and uniform. Records
are fragmentary but this appears to be the
result of early work by the genetic planning
councilr A full report will be submitted on
our return.

Report a)

The world council has been extremely co-
operative and we have made a thorough study
of the history of the planet. A full report will
he submitted on our return. In summary
complex large scale societies first made their
appearance on the planet in about the 4th
millenium. For about 4,000 years they in-
creased slowly in complexity. in the middle
of the 8th millenium (the 20th century of the
earth calendar) a signiiicant increase in tech-
nology led to a population erruption, This
ended in a series oi local environmental
disasters near the end of this period, The
result was a major drive towards local and
worldwide pollution control. Although govern-
ment was still effective only on a local or
national basis the first lnternation Environ-
mental problems that it led to the establish-
ment of the World Pollution Abatement couns
cil. By the end oi the century the population
control, and environmental repair programs
of this council were so effective that the
environment started to improve everywhere
except in parts of S.W. Europe and South
America where a religious sect forbidding
birth control was effective in maintaining
population growth. By the middle of the next
century the huge differential between these
countries and the rest at the world led to
a weakening of church authority and iinally
a reversal In church position.

The success of the WtPA. council led to the
development oi the parallel World Arms liege
ulation program, After 100 years of qualified
failure the first World Army was established
(earth year 2l38) and no large scale war
has occurred Since that time Tile world
population has fluctuated between 5 to 5 25
billion since then. Localgovernments have
generally succeeded in maintaining their
societies in the normal prosperous condi-
tion which is quite comparable to our own.
Which will it be? None oi'the allover-is prob-
ably the best answer to that question. It is
Certain that the next five decades will play
a critical role in deciding the futilre. If
our fate is to be near either l or 3 then we
will have a good idea of this by then, I! it
tails nearer 2 it will take a bit longer to
be clear, Evolution tells us that the future
will be precisely what we make it We can
only try to make it as good as possible

The Scarlet and Black

’

Some
Economic
Recommendations

by Robert Voertman,
Professor 01 Economics

Over a century ago Karl Marx perceived
that the function of "the reserve army of the
unemployed in the capitalist economy was to
keep down wages. Late 19th century classical
(or bourgeois) economists dismised this idea,
hypothesizing that wages were determined by
the productivity of labor (actually, the “mar
ginal” productivity") These classical econo-
mists did not accept Marx’s idea that ins
voluntary unemployment was a regualr or
systemic feature of the economy. Such uni
employment as occurred was thought to be
due to temporary imbalances in the struc-

ture of demand for goods, the normal state

oi the economy being iull employment.

But a good idea can’t be suppressed in
a country where ireedom oi thought pres
vails, this Marxist View is now being stoutly
defended by President Nixon's closest ad-
visors on economic aiiairs. Secretary oi the
Treasury Connally, and Chief of the Council
of Economic Advisers Stein assure us that
at least in, or 5% unemployment is essene
tial to the economic health of the system.
a lesser size “reserve army oi the un—
employed” would be a deviation from the

normal conditions of equilibrium; full em-
ployment, they say, would cause an unstable,
upward pressure on wages and cause severe
inilation Anyone who may dissent risks being
spenred on the spot with a ”Phillips Curve"
(see any proi. in Econ Dept. tor a coin-
plete explanation oi the sharp point on a

Phillips Curve). Having recently learned that
i am a Taurus, and having successiully
dodged a few other sharp curves in my day,
l have decided to buck up my courage and
explain why this Marxeliixon (or NixoneMarx,

‘May it, on

if you are a Republican-firster) thesis is
incorrecti (incidentally, it must not be as-
sumed that because Nixon is a Marxist in
his mode oi analysis oi the lunctioning oi
the capitalist economy, that Marx was also
a pacifist Quaker; the connecting heritage
is not along the religious channel. (See Mr.
Burkle or Mr. Haas for further clarification
oi religious channels.)

J.M Keynes (pronounced canes or cains)
made it perfectly clear in a book entitled
The General Theory OfEmployment, interest
And Money, that there was no necessary
theoretical connection between wages and un-
employment. Moreover, recent U.s. Govern»
ment statistical evidence makes it empiri-
cally clear that rising unemployment and
rising wages (and prices) go together just
as comfortable as ITT and the Justice Dept,
Finally, since inflation deprives people of
their property without “due process oflaw,”
I hereby point out that all President Nixon
and his Marxist advisers need to do to stop
inflation is to get the case into the Federal
courts; inilation is clearly unconstitutional.

Now, for the positive program to eliminate
unemployment; it’s theory and its practice:

1. There are unmet social needs.

2. There are at least 5 million involuntar-
ily unemployed workers, and many million
more very bored housewives, old people, and
college students who are being held out of
the labor market by such obsolete institu-
tions as male chauvanism, social security,
and aspiration to expertise, whom we can
classiiy as iunctionally unemployed.

3. Involuntariiy unemployed and functionally
unemployed workers can be set to work {ul-
filling unmet social needs if an increment to
“effective aggregate demand” can be gener-
ated out of the "potential economic surplus”
(see Baran and sweezy, Monopoly Capital)
extant in “imperialist gains" arising irom
20th century American overseas expan-
sionism.

4 initial capital iunding, related to the cal—
culated rate oi iuture returns iron the po
tential economic surplus, can be undertaken
through actions of the Treasury on the money
market (along the approved lines of capi-
talist finance) Possible balance of payments
difficulties can be checkmated by immediate
colonial tax levies in the high growth terri-
tories: South Vietnam, Taiwan, andthe Euro—
pean Common Market (clear predecessor exe
perleuce here, British Tea Tax, circa 1772).

A principle objection to the practicality of

‘ this model solution to the unemployment prob-

lem raised by one oi my colleagues centers
on the scarcity or management talent to plan
and direct the activities or such a large
cluster of corporations as would be involved
in this Unmet Social Needs industrial sector.
I View this objection as absurd and point to
the availability of countless executives from
Penn Central, and other leading railroads, a
pending supply irom Lockheed, NASA, and
the entire General Staff which is about to
leave the Southeast Asia Theater.

Further detail by way u! explanation has
been restricted by the editors, however,
i will be available to answer questions during
the summer here in Grinnell. lcustomarily
“tee-oil” at 1 pm, sharp on weekdays. My
analytical insights are generally most pros
found in the rough along the railroad track
(on number iour hole).

 

